The car of the future isn’t a car at all
Minivans and autonomous shuttles take center stage as automakers try to understand the future of driving
This week, a subsidiary of Volkswagen called Moia unveiled a new concept vehicle in Berlin: a six-seater all-electric van. Blandly brown in color and retaining none of the flash typical of other concept vehicles, the Moia EV probably flew under the radar for most people. But what’s interesting about it is that the vehicle is designed for ride-hailing services like Uber and Lyft, and more specially for carpooling. And Moia isn’t the only company that sees the advantage of a large wheelbase vehicle as the perfect hedge against an uncertain future.
Over the last year, the auto industry has been leaning into minivans, vans, and shuttles as the types of vehicles best suited for these shared, pooled rides, either with a human driver or an autonomous one. Thanks to a convergence of self-driving technology, ride-sharing and car-sharing apps, and battery-electric vehicles, OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) are rushing to respond to shifting consumer habits. And the fact remains, the classic four-door passenger sedan just doesn’t cut it anymore.
“Well, if you’re a believer in the autonomous vehicle future, then the MOIA EV has to be the kind of people-moving super cab that VW and others have to develop,” said Michael Ramsay, an analyst at Gartner. “When we get down to it, these vehicles are small buses, operating, one would hope, in a more efficient way than current bus and paratransit systems.”
VW plans to go into production on the Moia EV starting next year, which is truly remarkable for a concept just unveiled this week. The company plans to launch a “ride-pooling concept” in Hamburg next year with a fleet of 200 of the electric vans. The goal, according to Moia CEO Ole Harms, is to reduce “the number of cars in major cities by one million in Europe and the USA by 2025.”
Other car companies have their own shuttle buses and minivans in operation. Ford acquired the San Francisco-based micro-transit service Chariot last year and has been steadily expanding its presence in cities across the US. General Motors and its subsidiary Cruise Automation have been piloting an autonomous taxi service in San Francisco using a fleet of electric Chevy Bolts. (The Bolt isn’t a van, of course, but GM has said it will release 20 new all-electric vehicles by 2023.) And Waymo, the self-driving division of Alphabet, has deployed fully driverless Chrysler Pacifica minivans in a suburb of Phoenix for its own ride-hailing pilot.
Speaking of Waymo, it seems increasingly apparent that many people will first experience autonomous driving technology not through vehicles owned by giant companies like Google or Uber, but as passengers in tiny, autonomously driven shuttle buses that are popping up in cities across the country. These self-driving shuttle services are quickly becoming the must-have tourist attraction for many municipalities. These vehicles, which are built by startups like Local Motors, May Mobility, and Navya, have appeared in places like Las Vegas, Denver, and Washington, DC. Their routes are simple, and seating is limited, but many see these tiny vehicles as a gateway to introducing automated driving to a broader swath of the population.
And when you look at some of the flashier concept vehicles unveiled recently, you find even more examples of how the industry is trending toward larger, multi-passenger vehicles. In Geneva earlier this year, VW showed off a quirky autonomous minivan called Sedric with no steering wheel or pedals, that can be summoned at the push of a button for ride-hailing trips. It looked like a grumpy toaster, but its interior was designed to look more like a lounge than a six-seater airport shuttle.
“I don't consider this a gimmick, but rather a crucial part of the mobility ecosystem,” said Sam Abuelsamid, an analyst at Navigant. “Mobility services will need to operate with a variety of different vehicle types that can support different uses and price points.”
Minivans and shuttles have other advantages beyond additional legroom. There is flexibility to switch back and forth between carrying cargo and people based on demand, Abuelsamid said. And with the addition of automation, these vehicles could be manufactured to have swappable interior modules, with seats or package racks or even drone charging and deployment for package deliveries. Heavy GPUs to power self-driving software can fit snugly in a more spacious trunk.